2017 Farmers Insurance Open: Preview

Photo courtesy of PGATour.com

Congratulations to Hudson Swafford for earning his first PGA win! And another congrats to Adam Hadwin for shooting the second 59 of 2017 – pretty amazing considering only six golfers had shot sub-60 rounds on the PGA Tour, ever, and we have now seen two more join that club in consecutive weeks. Even more amazing is the fact that Hadwin accomplished this feat on a par 72 course.

As for our picks, we saw some mixed results – Hadwin was joined by Brendan Steele (T6), Chez Reavie (T12), and Bill Haas (T17) in the top 20, and Tom correctly faded Jamie Lovemark (MC at +3), but we also lost our picks of Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo, Ryan Palmer, and Harold Varner III to the cut. The format of the tournament – opening on a 3-course rotation and making the cut after Saturday, not Friday – added a level of difficulty to picking golfers. But it is up to you to know what you are facing each week. So with that being said, we will transition to this week’s test, the Farmers Insurance Open.

For starters, this tournament is played on two courses: Torrey Pines North and South. The pros will alternate on Thursday and Friday, and those who make the cut will finish the tournament on the famed South course (probably best known for hosting Tiger Woods’ huge comeback U.S. Open win in 2008).  The South course is considerably longer and tougher, but both are traditional par 72s. Tee times are worth considering due to this format (which should be posted on Wednesday). Golfers who get the chance to play the South course in the morning typically get better scoring conditions, and – so long as they make the cut – playing the South course on Friday could provide a small advantage headed into the weekend. Disclaimer: These factors serve better as tiebreakers, not sole reasons to pick or fade a golfer.

The most exciting  thing about this week is that we are seeing the deepest full-field event of the year by far, with even more notable golfers teeing it up than in past years. Yes, Tiger Woods is back, which undoubtedly means that he will get more coverage than if Trump stripped naked and strolled down Times Square. However, there are a lot of other great players in the field that we haven’t seen yet, including but not limited to Rickie Fowler, J.B. Holmes, Brooks Koepka, Shane Lowry, and (not including the Tournament of Champions) Dustin Johnson and Nike’s new poster child, Jason Day. Alright, enough set up, here are our picks for the Farmers.

Pick of the Week

Jon:

Luke List $7,200 – List seemingly has turned a corner in his game. He was cut last year at Torrey Pines, but as it sits right now, I like the way List has been playing, and I like that his stats lineup for a  good showing at Farmer’s. List has been going low dating back to last October, and I think he’ll continue at Torrey Pines.  His 4.3 average on par-5’s also bodes well for a course where that stat has been incredibly telling of past victors.

Tom:

Tiger Woods Jimmy Walker $9,400 – Psych! Tiger is not my pick of the week, and since he is Tiger, he will undoubtedly be a fair few people’s pick even though we recommend waiting to see how his stamina holds up, despite his storied history at this venue. Instead, my pick is probably equally risky in Jimmy Walker. On one hand, Walker has four top 10s (and one MC) in the past 5 years at this tournament. On the other hand, he burned people badly at the Sony Open, where he also has a great history. Walker has a tendency to burn you when you least expect it, but because of this trait, I think a lot of people will weigh his MC at the Sony higher than his history here, and I’m all for going against the grain with a player of Walker’s caliber.

Dustin Johnson

Will Dustin Johnson continue the success that earned him Player of the Year honors in 2016? Photo courtesy of sunsetviewgolf.com

Thick Steak Plays

Jon:

Dustin Johnson $ 11,100 – When Tiger used to dominate, one of his most intimidating factors was being bigger off the tee than the rest of the tour. Well guess who’s one of the biggest off the tee these days…that’s right, DJ. Dustin Johnson has got that tour swag going right now, and in his first full-field PGA event in 2017, I like DJ to make the inevitable “Tiger Watch” obsolete as he asserts his dominance at Torrey Pines.

Justin Rose $10,200 – It would appear that his back is perfectly fine. Rose had himself a stellar 2016 season, and was able to follow that up with a 2nd place finish at The Sony Open in Hawaii. For whatever reason, Rose is typically the victim of low ownership, and I would expect the same thing this week, with people grabbing Hideki and DJ instead. I like Rose a lot this week, and would trust him in both GPP and cash lineups.

Tom:

Jon Rahm $9,200 – Jon beat me to the punch on two of my picks this week, and the first was DJ. He will likely be a favorite of many, but I agree with Jon’s logic: he’s firing on all cylinders right now, and if his tee game is on point, he has the best chance of anyone to overpower the tough South course (with that being said, he could also make an interesting fade if you are feeling gutsy, because he is coming off a runner-up finish in Abu Dhabi which could lead to a jet-lag-induced letdown).

But onto my pick, Jon Rahm. Rahm is no longer a well-kept secret based on his usage last week, and price tag this week. He is an all-world golfer, and I see him having the greatest success in tournaments that require patience and skill, not necessarily going low like last week, so I predict Rahm will wait for his moments, and keep himself in contention throughout the weekend.

Gary Woodland $8,600 – This week marks two out of three that I have endorsed Woodland. And that doesn’t concern me, because Woodland always shows up in these early events (much like Walker, Perez, Howell III, Steele, and more). In fact, Woodland might be the least talked about golfer in this category. And in this event, he is as sure a bet to make the cut as any. With a top 10 two years ago, Woodland was in position to win last year before literally getting blown out (as so many in the field were) by the torrential wind and rain on Sunday to the tune of an 82. That being only a few strokes above the average in some of the toughest conditions in PGA history, I’m hoping to scoop up some course history that others will overlook from Woodland.

Middle of the Road

Jon:

Kevin Chappell $7,400 – When I’m as high as I am on Dustin Johnson, I am likely to be similarly high on DJ Lite, AKA Kevin Chappell. It’s no secret that Chappell is the guy that other players think should have won by now on the tour, and I could see him coming out swinging in 2017. The only thing that scares me is very little course history coupled with the tendency to not play well early in the year.

Charles Howell III $7,300 – It looks like old Charlie Three-Sticks has picked up right where he left off. For DFS purposes, he essentially should be used as the cornerstone for cash lineups because he is such a consistent cut maker.  Not only that, but Howell boasts multiple top 10s at Torrey Pines in recent years, and his price has fallen due to the stronger field.

Tom:

Pat Perez $7,600 – DJ lite was the other guy Jon beat me to the punch on picking, because if he can keep the ball in play, he has the power to shoot some low rounds this week, and keep up his solid play from 2016. But in keeping with my theme of golfers who show up early in the season, I like Perez for the obvious reasons (this is his home course, he has a good history, and has already won this season) and for a new one: Perez actually took last week off, which shows good decision making given his age, and shows that he was even more committed to preparing for this week.

Danny Lee $7,100 – Even though we did not mention it, I was all over Lee last week with the price tag of $6,800. He has been in and out of the conversation surrounding the young talent that has dominated the PGA Tour recently. Inconsistency has plagued him in the last two seasons, and fittingly, he struggled through the weekend at the Career Builder after jumping out to a hot start that had him in the top five through two rounds. I actually think his game lends itself to tougher courses though, and thus will be going back to the well with Lee despite it costing me last week.

Tom’s Fade of The Week

Tiger Woods Jason Day $11,400 – Psych #2! That’s the seventh Tiger reference I’ve counted from this post, so I guess we’re doing our due diligence as golf writers. And picking Woods as my fade is more likely than pick of the week, but who wants to be that guy who faded Tiger Woods in his epic comeback tournament? Just not going in there. And besides, I couldn’t resist picking the heir to his Nike thrown. My rationale with Jason Day is that 1. I’m not convinced he is comfortable with the equipment and wardrobe change, and 2. I think if you pick wisely, you won’t get burned by fading the Aussie even if he does win. Simply put, with the strength of the field and the prices the way they are, I’m a strong advocate for avoiding the highest priced player all together, and leaning instead on lineups with the mid-range, 7-9K guys.

Jon’s Flyer of The Week

I’m offering two flyers this week because I’m really high on Martin Laird given his price tag (see below), but also predict he will have higher ownership than a true flyer pick.

Martin Laird $6,500 – I really like Party Marty Laird this week for a few reasons: 1. His course history looks good, coming in at T8 and T7 the past two years. 2. His recent form, including the wraparound season, would suggest that he’s poised for another good showing this at Torrey Pines. And finally, 3. His statistics in total driving, birdie or better % and strokes gained tee-to-green are all top 20 on tour.

John Huh $6,700 – A pick that might make some go, “huh?” John Huh has played well at Torrey Pines, and I’d look for him to play well following a strong showing this fall and at Waialae. Huh has been cut one time at Torrey Pines since 2012, and also was able to notch two top-10 finishes here in the same time span.

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Career Builder Challenge

704x422Justin Thomas is hot hot hot right now, with PGATour.com already asking, if his “best is yet to come?” It’s always fun when the first full-field tournament of the year results in history being made. However, not as fun when 17 lineups between 2 novice daily fantasy golf players only feature Justin Thomas once, so let’s put Hawaii behind us and move on to the California swing. The Career Builder Challenge at PGA West is a unique event to say the least. It has never been quite the same since the five-day birdie fest known as the Bob Hope Challenge, but it is still played as a pro-am, still is played on three different courses, and although it’s been dialed back to the traditional four days, it is still typically a shoot out affair. There are not a ton of big names signed up this year, with Patrick Reed being the odds-on favorite to win, and Lefty getting his start on the 2017 season.

Statistic-based strategy is a little “iffy” right now, with the data pool in 2017 being inherently shallow, and so course history and current form are perhaps the best indicators of how players can fair. 2016 stats are great to look at, but often don’t often tell the whole story. So, without further ado, here are some of our picks for The Career Builder Challenge.

**Check out the first installment of a consistent “Tom’s Fade of The Week,” and “Jon’s Flyer of The Week.” Playing to our strengths, Tom has often picked high-level fades to avoid, while Jon has a knack for finding those guys near the bottom of the barrel who can rise up the leaderboard and win you some money.

Pick of the week

Jon:

Bill Haas $10,500. This took a lot for me to put Mr. Haas up as my pick of the week. And he very well could let me down just like Chris Kirk did last week. However, history speaks for itself. Haas clearly knows how to play this work, notching a win here, back when it was the Humana challenge, and following that up with a t9 finish last year. He seems to have figured out this course, and I like that he was able chip in on 18 at Waialae to build momentum.

Tom:

 

Kevin Na $8,800. Is Patrick Reed my favorite player of the week? Naaaa… Okay, that was too obvious, but so is picking Kevin Na this week, in my opinion. Na had a steady week with four rounds in the 60s at the Sony Open, and is ready to pop in 2017. He has made the cut here in La Quinta the past three tries, including his best finish at T3 last year. My only caution any time that I endorse Na is ownership percentage. For whatever reason, Na is always incredibly popular on Draft Kings. I think it is because of his well-known battle with nerves and anxiety, that reflects that of the average DK player trying to create winning lineups: he’s the every man golfer. But I don’t care if everyone takes him this week, because I feel so strongly about a top 10 finish this week.

 

Thick Steak Plays:

Jon:

Zach Johnson $10,200. As mentioned previously, stats are a little harder to look at with a such a small data pool. We then have to guess based on 2016 and current form. ZJ certainly showed that he could go low in Hawaii, and I’d look for him to continue at PGA West. GIR’s and Putts are huge – I’ll say it all week. Those stats are going to lead to low rounds, and Johnson has proven more than capable in those areas.

Emiliano Grillo $9,800. If Tom doesn’t mention Jon Rahm as either his pick of the week, or at least one of his picks, then we’ll have words. Aside from Rahm though, I like Grillo to build on an impressive 2016 rookie campaign. He finished high in driving accuracy, GIR percentage, strokes-gained, and our going low composite stats. The concern is he has no course history here, but that didn’t stop him from making 22 cuts last year as a rookie.

Tom:

 

Brendan Steele $9,300. Jon’s reference to Rahm comes from the fact that he was my prized third-round pick in our season-long league, as a guy I think can end up top 10 on the money list in a breakout year. But let me be clear: I plan on taking a wait-and-see approach with Rahm this week. Granted, it’s easy for me to do that because I am hedging, and will benefit from Rahm winning even if I don’t play him much in DK lineups. So instead, I’m picking some more obvious, chalky fruit in Brendan Steele. Steele won the Safeway Open to kick off the 2016-17 season, he’s coming off a T6 finish in the Tournament of Champions, and is known for great play in California. Done.

Scott Piercy $8,300. As you can see, I have skipped over a lot of the thickest of steak players this week, and am including a moderately thick play in Scott Piercy. That brings up a good tid-bit on contrarian lineup strategy. By far, and especially when talking about other novice players, the most common strategy lineup is to pick one or two players >9,000, two <7,000, and sprinkle in the mid-range plays to round it out. Thus, in weeks where you don’t love the high-end plays, a great strategy is to make some lineups with all 7,000-9,000 players, as you will likely create unique combinations that way. Piercy is a perfect anchor for this approach at the CareerBuilder, as he also is a steady cut-maker with top 10 upside, and a history of good play early in the season.

screen-shot-2017-01-16-at-1-40-10-pm

Career Builder History

Middle of the Road:

Jon:

Chez Reavie $7,500. While not as cheap as I would have hoped, I like Reavie this week. Chez had himself quite a day on Sunday of the Sony Open. In a similar “go low” style of  course, I think Chez can build on his Hawaiian momentum in California. If he can continue trending upward on his strokes gained approaching the green, then I think he is certainly capable of making those eagle putts that he has become recently accustomed to making.

Adam Hadwin $7,500. My love for Adam Hadwin knows no bounds. This guy is a birdie monster – ranking 12 in total birdies for 2012. He has had relatively good success recently at PGA West, and I would look for him to build on a good 2016 season, and come out and start making birdies left and right as he’s known to do. In terms of DFS scoring, Hadwin is like going to Hyde Park Steakhouse during happy hour: It’s a damn good deal.

Tom:

Ryan Palmer $8,000. No tricks or gimmicks here, Ryan Palmer is up there with Mickelson and Haas as the biggest horse the course this week. He has finished no worse than T17 here in the past four years, and his success at this event dates back to the Bob Hope classic. Palmer had a disappointing 75 on Friday to miss the cut last week, but he did open with a 66, and should be able to bounce back in California.

Harold Varner III $7,200. Let me preface by saying: I am not picking Varner for a guarantee of a T25 finish, or even a guarantee of a made cut. I am picking Varner because he’s a young player with boatloads of talent, and is bound to go off eventually. He hasn’t done much since debuting as a rookie last year, but he did make 18/28 cuts, and converted 4 into top 10 finishes. What I like about Varner is that he’s known for making birdies, and he will get three rounds to do so before the cut, as the cut will occur on Saturday this week, after each player gets a shot at each course. People should be off of Varner after back-to-back missed cuts, which is why he is risky, but also a potentially sneaky pick.

Tom’s Fade of The Week

Jamie Lovemark $9,600. There are two main reasons to fade a player: his cost does not match your assessment of his value, or you perceive his ownership to be higher than your assessment of his value. Lovemark checks both of these boxes for me. On one hand, I  think he fits the bill as a great play – long off the tee, capable of going low, and coming in with form (T4 and T6 in previous two starts) + history (T6 here last year). Wait a second, wow, Lovemark sounds like a perfect pick! The only problem is, Draft Kings also picked up on this, and consequently inflated his price to 9,600, and there is no doubt the public will pick up on this and lead to high ownership. So with a guy who is still relatively unproven, in a game that is incredibly difficult to achieve consistency, I see Lovemark as both a strategic and logical fade this week.

Jon’s Flyer of The Week

Peter Malnati $6,300. Malnati is my flyer of the week. Malnati shot in the 60’s all last week at Waialae good for a T27. I look for Malnati to continue to go low this week at PGA West. Malnati has proven he can make his birdies, and his weakness comes when he has a bad day and can’t recover. With the set-up of the Career Builder (cut on the last day), Malnati’s value is understated at his current price. I look to Malnati to have a good few days at PGA West, and hopefully be in contention come Sunday.

 

 

 

2017 Sony Open at Waialae: Preview

2017 Sony Open at Waialae: Preview

sony-open-logo

Source: PGATour.com

Welcome to the 2017 PGA Tour! For those who also have not wrapped their heads around the wrap-a-round season for fantasy golf purposes, the season is officially getting underway! After a much needed hiatus, Tom and I are back and better than ever.

Waialae

Waialae Course History

Our new approach: provide daily and season-long fantasy golf analysis and strategy in a way that will not only be accessible to the casual fan, but in fact is catered to that level of commitment. Tom and I are not sharks — we are both in graduate school, and don’t have $200 to throw down every week in DFS, let alone $5,000. Thus we play the game from a different point of view than the shark gamer, who is looking for a 3-5% return on investment. We try to focus on smaller bets and having fun – novel concept, we know!

With that being said, Tom and I have both experienced our shares of fantasy success, but we each take a little different approach. I prefer to look at a small pool of relevant statistics, while Tom — who has been a fan of the sport since before fantasy was relevant — takes an analytical approach, based on his knowledge of players and courses. Together we try to give the most accurate predictions possible.

Picks of The Week

Jon:  Chris Kirk $7,700 –  is my pick of the week. Kirk struggled in 2016, notching only 3 top-10s all season. But look out 2017! Kirk already has 3 top-10s, including a 2nd place finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship back in October.  He ranks high in approaches from 100-125, which bodes well for Waialae – a shorter course. And oh yeah, Kirk knows how to finish at The Sony Open. He had top-10s in both 2013 and 2014.

Chris Kirk

Will Chris Kirk capture a victory in Hawaii this week? Source: PlayersWiki

Tom: Marc Leishman $8,200 – Granted, part of the reason Leishman is my pick of the week is that I expect a lower ownership with the underrated Aussie, there are also some fact and figures to consider. First and foremost, Leishman is a quiet cut-maker. Last year, although he only had 2 top-10 finishes, he also only missed 5 cuts. On top of that, he has yet to miss the cut at the Sony Open in 7 appearances, and like Jon’s Kirk pick, he strung together top-10s here in 2013 and 2014. Thursday will only be his third start this season, but he started off with a 5th place at the CIMB Classic, and a T24 in Mayakoba.

Thick Steak Plays

Jon:

Jimmy Walker $9,900 – It would seem that all Jimmy has done here is win. Hitting back to back wins in 2014 & 2015, Walker will look to get back on the Hawaiian throne. Walker looked like he was already in form last week at the Tournament of Champions, and still has the swagger of a major winner. Walker also scores high in putts made from 15-20 feet, which bodes well for these Hawaiian courses, where the pros can get close from short distances.

Hideki Matsuyama $11,000 – Hideki feels like he’s in prime position for a breakout performance this season. He’s won twice already in “the offseason” and finished second in the Tournament of Champions, as Justin Thomas was just able to hold him off. Possibly the most ridiculous stat for Hideki right now, is of the 20 rounds he’s played, 16 of them have been in the 60s. If you’re looking for a low round, Hideki is your guy.

Tom:

Jordan Spieth $11,500 – I’m just going to call it: this is one of the weeks you want to have Spieth in your lineups. A. He lead the field in birdies last week, and even if commentators love to talk about the blow up holes and (exhaustively) connect them back to 12 at the Masters, we all know he can easily navigate a tournament without a blow up hole. B. Spieth has to be charged up after his friend Justin Thomas followed up some early-week pranking with a win at the Tournament of Champions. And C. Being the highest-priced player and only costing $11,500 is not as bad as it could be, so you would be wise to choose him.

Gary Woodland $9,100 – Let me preface by saying that I’m also really high on Jon’s picks of Walker and Matsuyama. And I don’t think you’d be ill-advised to roll Justin Thomas out again this week; Thomas and Matsuyama are in a heated-battle for hottest golfer on Tour right now, and both are theoretically young enough to avoid burnout. But I’m here to talk about Woodland, who I love at 9.1K. In keeping with the theme started with Leishman, Woodland is a cut-maker. While he hasn’t won in the past three seasons, he’s made the cut in 80% of the tournaments he’s played. Woodland also has an intersting history with this course. After missing the cut in his first two attempts (2009 and 2011), he skipped the tournament for three-straight years, and then finished T3 in 2015 and T13 last year. Add to that, Woodland’s last finish was a runner-up in Mayakoba.

 

Middle of the Road

Jon:

Russell Knox $8,100 – Knox won twice in 2016, and rarely missed the cut. While he finished middle of the road at the SBS Tournament of Champions, Knox has been as consistent as anyone on the tour. Be weary as he has missed the cut a few times at Waialae, but his top-10 rankings in both total birdies and average birdies bodes well for the course. Consider Knox a boom or bust candidate best deployed in GPP formats.

Pat Perez $8,000 – I can’t even believe I’m saying that Perez is a player to watch this week, but there’s no denying that the  40-year-old is playing good, early-season golf. Maybe dressing like a hipster out of Seattle has revitalized his game, or maybe it’s made him feel so douchey that he feels like he has to get off the course as quick as he can. In any case Perez is playing well. Perez has notched multiple top-10s here, and they have recently came in years where he performed well at Mayakoba. Well guess what, Perez won at Mayakoba, and is coming off a top-3 finish at the Tournament of Champions, so look for him to contend again this week.

Tom:

William McGirt $7,900 – Jon stole my pick of Pat Perez, who was almost my pick of the week in fact (the only negative on him is that ownership is likely to be sky-high), but alas, more picks = more fun. When McGirt started 2017 right where he left off a breakthrough 2016 performance, I exclaimed to my partner in crime – who ironically has always been higher on McGirt than myself – that I would do myself a favor and put McGirt in at least one lineup every week. See, the irony comes from the fact that McGirt attended my alma mater: little old Wofford College, yet I have regularly faded him and paid the price. Well I’m sorry William, I will never doubt you again! But seriously, McGirt played incredible golf in 2016, and followed it up with a top-10 finish in his first Tournament of Champions. Let’s hope it’s not his last, and let’s hope he continues that good play at Wailae (where he finished T13 last year).

Harris English $7,500 – No long-winded essay about why you should pick Harris English. It’s simple: he’s an excellent golfer, you probably forgot that he’s an excellent golfer, but he certainly has not forgotten how much he loves Wailae. Aside from disappointing showings in his debut, and last season when he failed to break par on the weekend, English has cracked the top 10 every time. Oh, and those other two were still made cuts.

Here’s Your Flyer

Jon:

Cody Gribble $6,800 – What the what!? If you need a low end play to fill out your roster, I present to you Cody Gribble. Gribble played a few PGA events in 2015, after finishing T21 in the U.S. Open in 2014. Admittedly, he may have been out of his league. After a 2016 campaign on the Web.com tour that secured his spot on the PGA, Gribble seems a bit more ready for the limelight. The former Texas Longhorn (see also: Jordan Spieth) won his first event at the Sanderson Farms Championship, which earned him a spot at The SBS Tournament of Champions, where he finished T14. Gribble has his putter figured out on these Bermuda greens, and has the ability to go low, which is a must in Hawaii.

Tom:

Wesley Bryan $6,700 – I invite you to play a game: Pick your Rookie. It’s a favorite at the Sony Open, which used to be the debut for rookies on the PGA Tour, and was highlighted by Russell Henley shooting the tournament record (256/-24) in his rookie-debut, en route to winning in 2013. Jon offered you Cody Gribble, and I’m offering you Wesley Bryan, who just happened to putt the lights out while notching 3 wins and leading the Web.com tour in several categories last season. Bryan somehow translated internet fame from posting trick-shot golf videos with his brother into success on the actual pro circuit. He should be a fun player to watch, and a course like this is perfect for him to show off his tee-to-green and putting chops.

2016 U.S. Open At Oakmont Country Club

2016 U.S. Open At Oakmont Country Club

Oakmont Country Club

Oakmont CC will play host to the 2016 U.S. Open

We’re on to our 2nd major of the year with the U.S. Open!! This year the U.S. Open returns to Oakmont with it’s treacherous greens, bunkers, and rough. When we say this course is difficult, we mean it is about as hard as they come. Grinders are the main players we are targeting this week, and there are some good ones in this field. Putting and driving accuracy will be key, as anyone in the rough is bound to give up a stroke or two.

At The Top

1, 2, and 3. There they are, Day, Spieth, and McIlroy. I don’t think you can really go wrong with either. If I had to rank them right now, I think I would go Spieth, Day, and McIlroy, and I will tell you why. Rory brings up the rear as he has been switching his putter grip throughout the year, and he seemingly hasn’t put together a complete tournament this year. Yes, he has a Euro victory, but his putter is the reason he falls to third on this list. Day and Spieth are virtually interchangeable. The only reason I have Day behind Spieth is because of the flu rumors. I fully admit it’s tinfoil hatting, but the disease that has been making its way around the folks in my life, has had them bed-ridden for no less than 4-5 days. I don’t know if it’s the same thing, but I know if things don’t go his way, it is easier to get frustrated while also feeling like shit. Spieth is Spieth, you know he’s going to compete in a major, and if there is one thing that he has above the rest is fast-green putting. Of the three, I will be overweight on Spieth.

 

 

Fade of the Week

I hate doing this but I’m fading Rickie Fowler again this week, and I have a very weird reason why: His snapchat game. I would like to

Jordan Spieth

Can Jordan Spieth repeat as the U.S. Open Champion?

put one disclaimer here: I love Rickie’s snapchat. I think it’s good for the game, and I think it shows kids that golf is cool, and gives access that fans would otherwise not have. With that being said, I don’t think Rickie is getting dialed in. I know golf is supposed to be fun, but when he’s whipping his phone out during practice rounds, taking snaps of Rory, he looks more like a fan than a player, which is totally fine, but I’m not going to put my money on him.

 

My other bold fade would be Adam Scott, mainly because putting is a big struggle of his, and I expect that to have an impact this week.

High-End Plays

Dustin Johnson – This goes against one of my chief DFS principles: Don’t chase a narrative. Would it be great for Dustin Johnson to come in and get his first major win by conquering an event that he seemingly had in the bag last year, only to three putt it all away?  Yes. Does it mean that it will happen? Absolutely not, especially because it’s nowhere near the same course. That being sad, I can’t ignore DJ’s form coming into this event. No missed cuts, and his putting is actually much improved. If he can be smart, club down and keep it in the fairway, then I think Dustin could have a shot.

Justin Rose – Everything I’ve read about Rose is that all he’s been doing since withdrawing from the BMW is getting ready for the U.S. Open. As a former U.S. Open winner, he’s proven that he has what it takes to get it done.  Rose also seems like he is mentally primed for a grind it out tournament, and could be in a great spot to get it done.

Danny Willet – Fine, I’ll bite. The Masters winner has been churning out Top-10’s this year, including a T3 at The BMW. Yes, the cut at The Players is not comforting, but this kind of course seems to suit Danny’s style a little more. Also if Danny is in contention, you know his brother will be live tweeting, which makes it all the better.

 

U.S. Open Stats

Our top 30 stats list for the U.S. Open. Green names are quick greens specialist, while red names mean they typically struggle on quick greens.

Mid-Range Plays

Henrik Stenson – Another player whose performance at The Players was rather disturbing, couple that with the cut at Wells Fargo, and I would expect his ownership to be rather low. However, Stenson has a game that is geared toward this type of course. He’s incredibly accurate off the tee, while staying long. He’s got great strokes gained tee-to-green stats, and he tends to putt well on quick greens. I like Henrik as a nice GPP play

Patrick Reed – Doesn’t he just feel due for a major win? The Villain has been playing great golf, he has wonderful strokes gained stats, and his putting isn’t too shabby either. Couple that with his great scrambling ability and it looks like he has what it takes to win. The biggest concern with P.Reed is his driving accuracy, which hopefully can be fixed if he clubs down. The only other knock I have is Reed loves to hit the draw which tends to run a little farther than a cut, and not stick as well, which is what he’s going to need this week to make these shots stay on the fairway, let alone the green.

Matt Kuchar – Kuch just makes cut after cut after cut. And surprise, surprise he is tops in our statistics model, coming in top-50 in all of our key stats this week. If ever there was a set up for a winner, it’s Kuch. He’s a smart player, and seems to take the negative emotion out of the game. I absolutely love Kuch this week, and therefore I am making Kuch my pick of the week.

Brandt Snedeker – A sneaky, sneaky GPP play. The thing about majors is that the good ones tend to show up, and there is no doubt that Brandt is a good one. His putting has always been what sets him apart, and his putting is what should help him make his mark here at Oakmont.

 

U.S. Open Weather

Snapshot of the predicted weather at Oakmont

Lower-End Plays

Charl Schwartzel – Talk about a discount for a guy who has been playing wonderful golf. This week Charl statistically looks like Matt Kuchar-lite. Charl has had multiple top-10’s in U.S. Open’s, and I would look for him to continue to do so here at Oakmont.

Shane Lowry – I’ll call picking the Irishman a little bold. He had a nice finish at The Players. I like him better on a links style course however. He also comes in decently high in our model, ranked 48th over all, right below Branden Grace, who seems to be a favorite this week. Hopefully Lowry can find a little Irish luck for a good finish.

Graeme McDowell – The putter is the only thing that worries me about G-Mac, as it seems he can struggle with it at times. However, he has wonderful driving accuracy off the tee, which should help mitigate his putting struggles. He’s had a top-10 in a U.S. Open before, and I’d like to see him notch another.

Emiliano Grillo – Another bold pick, but that’s what we’re doing down here. He had a good Memorial Tournament finish, and I like the rookie to continue grinding and adding to his impressive 2016 campaign. Like Graeme, Grillo’s impressive 70% of fairways hit off the tee puts him on this list.

Danny Lee – As long as Lee can stay out of the sand, he’s got a shot. Lee, like Kuchar, seems to be another smart player. He’ll hit his fairways, and his putter really can heat up. He was cut in last years version of the U.S. Open, however Lee has really made strides in his game, as he seems to be a name that continues to pop up. If he can fire a few 74/75’s I think he’d be in great shape.

 

Look out for the Thursday early morning, and the Friday night weather as this course plays monumentally easier when it’s wet vs dry. It could definitely impact scoring, depending on how much it rains.

Who’s ready for an awesome U.S. Open??!

 

2016 Memorial Tournament Preview

2016 Memorial Tournament Preview

Memorial TournamentHelllloo Columbus! Tom and I are both hometown boys, so this is one of our favorite events all year. Muirfield typically rewards course managers, like past winners Hideki Matsuyama and Matt Kuchar. However, that’s not to say that length doesn’t help with some reachable par 5’s. Course history is also good to take a look at as well, as typically those players who have played well here, continue to do so COUGHRyanMooreCOUGH. With the added bonus of having a stacked field, the Memorial Tournament is sure to be a must-watch this weekend.

 

Memorial Tournament ranking

Our top-25 Composite Ranking this week

The Top 3

What to do with Rory, Day and Spieth? I’m tempted to say fade them all, however then I start sounding like the Mad King — “FADE THEM ALL!” — Of the three, I think Spieth is the most likely to go top-10, if only to prove that he can dominate a “Augustesque” course (see hole 12 at Muirfield Village). Day is a member at Muirfield, so in theory, he should have that home-course swag, but we all saw how that can turn out with Webb Simpson at Quail Hollow. I could see Day getting into the “trying too hard” mentality and start really feeling some quick sand. Rory actually lines up pretty well for Muirfield, and will most likely be the lowest owned among the three. I could see him getting it done, but I will probably have very little stock in the OWGR top 3.

Fade Train

Rickie Fowler – He’s up, he’s down, he’s winning, he’s cut. He’s like a penny stock, and course history would suggest his position isn’t skyrocketing this week. Boom, faded.

Phil Mickelson – Speaking of stocks…nothing like playing in front of bunch of people who think you’re a crook. Top that off with Phil being overtly critical of the Muirfield fans taking pictures of him and boom, faded.

 

Muirfield Village

Can Hideki win another at Muirfield Village

High End Plays

Hideki Matsuyama – This is far and away my play of the week — along with everyone else on the planet I’m sure. I will be building all sorts of lineups around Matsuyama. He’s definitely the chalk play, but he’s the chalk play for a reason. He’s got great form coming in, great course history, and played well at a similar course this year, Augusta. I’m all chalked up for Mr. Matsuyama.

Dustin Johnson – I actually really like DJ this week. His ability to bomb, makes those reachable par-5’s all the more easier, and I can see him gaining some a lot of strokes there. Remember when DJ was cut this year? Yeah, me neither. He has been trending upwards at this tournament as well, with a nice T13 last year. I really like the DJ play this week.

Bubba Watson – In the same vein as DJ, Bubba has been playing great golf, and can make those par-5’s a lot easier with his distance. He also hasn’t missed a cut this year. The only thing I worry about with Bubba is a little rust, not having played since The Players back in mid-May. Still though, Bubba looks like a nice GPP play.

Matt Kuchar – Not much else to say other then he’s a cut making machine. Comes in with great form, and good course history. Cash game play for sure. Ownership might dictate that you stay away from him in GPP’s.

Memorial Tournament

Recent Course History at The Memorial Tournament

Mid Range Plays

Paul Casey – I really like Paul Casey this week. I think his Masters showing, makes him look like a solid play here. Definitely a little worried about some rust, but he should be well rested, and ready to play this week. Slightly worried about his ownership, as I think people may look at his Masters finish and think they’re being sneaky.

Charl Schwartzel – $8,000 really? talk about a discount. There’s a lot of guys that should be in the 8k range, but I don’t think Charl is one of them. He’s notched a few top-20’s at The Memorial and comes in with perfectly fine form. I could see him shaking Jack’s hand on Sunday.

Daniel Berger – Berger is another name that seems to be totally discounted. Once again form would dictate that he is ready to go this week, and notching top-10’s at both The Masters and The Players would suggest he’s not afraid of the field.

Kevin Chappell – If I’ve said it once, I’ll say it a hundred times. I love the bounce back play. How many people did Chappell burn last week to see his price go back to its average? I like DJ-lite at The Memorial. He’s shown he can get it done here, and is probably just seething knowing Webb Simpson somehow got it going last week, when Chappell couldn’t.

Other names I like: Marc Leishman, Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, Russel Knox, Ryan Moore.

Low End Plays

Daniel Summerhays – Summerhays has quietly been having a solid year. He’s got decent course history and I would look for him to come out and contend. The only worry is the strength of field but I wouldn’t be surprised with a top-10 from Dan The Man.

Adam Hadwin – Surprise, surprise, Adam Hadwin shows up again in this list. He’s been making cut after cut, and he just cruises with his putter week in week out. His ownership is growing every week. I could definitely see Hadwin coming out of nowhere and surprising everyone with a win.

Will McGirt – Tom, my co-author, who happens to be on the road, really called it saying McGirt plays his best when he’s in a field with the top guys. Well guess what, he’s in a field with top guys. The price tag dictates that he should be a nice value play this week, and a good guy to use to fill out some roster spots.

 

2016 Dean & Deluca Invitational

2016 Dean & Deluca Invitational

Colonial CCAs Columbus boys, this week we are getting more jacked up about the Memorial Tournament next weekend than this high-class Kroger invitational. However, playing host to the formal Crowne Plaza Invitational, Colonial CC is in its eighth decade of hosting a PGA event so there is a rich tradition with this tournament, even if the name has changed. Accuracy is the name of the game, as we’re looking at driving accuracy, and proximity to the hole, rather than who can freak-bomb it off the tee. And what would a golf course be without a snazzy nickname for a 3-hole stretch of disaster. Augusta has Amen Corner, Quail Hollow has The Green Mile, and Colonial CC has The Horrible Horseshoe ending with hole-5 along the Trinity River. Without further ado let’s get to it.

 

Charl SchwartzelPicks of the week

Jon: My pick of the week is going “The Baas,” Charl Schwartzel. CS has played 9 events missing the cut once, and notching 5 top-25’s, including a win. I love this play for a few reasons: The rust should be gone as last week he played his first tournament since The Masters. He is top-50 in our key stats, including 9 in strokes gained tee-to-green, and a nice 12 ranking in par-4 scoring average. He’s a birdie buster, who can get it done. The only thing that doesn’t bode well for Charl is his course history, which is not exactly stellar. At $9,000 though, you can fit Charl into just about any lineup.

The Fade Train

Jon: Kevin Chappell is my fade of the week. All I’ve been hearing is how this is Chappell’s tournament to win, and how everyone is all aboard the Chappell hype train. I get it, he’s a great player, and has been playing the best golf of his career. However, the $9,600 price tag and “Kevin Chappell” just don’t add up. His average price throughout the year is $7,800 and people are all aboard paying up for him. I just don’t see it. By all means, he could come out and win, but more likely I’m thinking high price for and a high ownership percentage for an average finish.

Dean and Deluca

Our Unweighted Top-30 Stats for The Dean and Deluca

Top End Plays

Adam Scott – Course history and pretty much tops in every statistical category you could want, save for driving accuracy, but you know what? It doesn’t matter much because he is pretty dang good making GIR’s from the rough as well. A winner at this event also suggests he knows what he’s doing.

Matt Kuchar – Okay, so the disappointment continues with Kuuuuuch, a crowd favorite who you really count on to win at least once every season. But the results are coming back for Kuchar. He is getting back in contention, with the obvious highlight of back to back T3 finishes started at the Players. With Kuchar in form, there is no reason to fade a guy who can be as consistent as the best.

Zach Johnson – Your course-horse ladies and gentlemen. ZJ knows this course real well. He’s a multiple winner with multiple top 10’s and has never been cut here. If you want your cash game play, well you’re looking at him.

Mid-Level Plays

Kevin Na – Course history is there, and statistically he should be highly favored. He’s got a nice par-4 scoring average. As long as he doesn’t get in his own head Na should be a safe play to contend. If he starts making mistakes though, then lookout.

Colt Knost – Knoooost! Colt has been making cut after cut after cut. He currently ranks 9th in our model, and would look to be a nice cash game play. I like the T3 at The Players — another course that demands management — and it looks like that got his confidence going. Couple that with a top-10 finish at Colonial CC in 2015 and I would say Knost is trending in the right direction.

Ryan Palmer  – Another guy with multiple top-10’s at a course where history matters. He’s quietly had himself a decent season, and putting him back in his home-state of Texas can only mean good things for the Aggie.

Jimmy Walker – A mild contrarian play. Jimmy hasn’t been playing well as of late. But to drop him down to $8,500 is a real discount. This is a guy who was ranked in the top-10 of the World Golf Rankings in February. He has a recent top-10 at Colonial in 2014, and his stats are there. If he uses last week as a bounce back, I think Jimmy can contend here.

Smylie Kaufman – The rook! Smylie should in theory be another nice contrarian play. The worry here is his accuracy off the tee. If he can control his driver, then you can just let the Draft Kings scorer do his thing, as he has admitted that his putter is one of the strongest parts of his game. I like Kaufman to be a sneaky GPP play.

Daniel Summerhays – Though not a household name, DFG players and PGA Tour followers have come to know Summerhays as a guy who consistently appears on leaderboards. He has never won on tour and never broken through into consistent major and FedEx Cup event invitations, but when he gets on a streak he can be as consistent as anyone to make a cut. I see Summerhays as the “poor mans Colt Knost” this week. Not only is he much cheaper, I think he will be lesser owned than some other guys at the 7k price, such as William McGirt and Cameron Tringale.

Low-Level Plays

Sean O’Hair – O’Hair is like that friend you have who is typically really funny, but every once in awhile, they try too hard and you have to apologize for them. When O’Hair is on, he’s just on, and when he’s off, you can pretty much forget about him. I like him to have a good week, as he’s got a high par-4 scoring average, and can scramble to make his pars. Bogey avoidance should be the name of his game, and I think it works out this week.

Adam Hadwin – My not-so-sneaky play of the week. I’ve had Hadwin in my lineups since the RBC, and maybe it’s because I haven’t felt him burn me with a cut, but I freaking love this Canadian. His ability to go low is what keeps him in my lineups; when his putter gets hot — and it will get hot — he starts raking in points. His stats don’t make your eyes light up, but the dude also has a nice top-5 finish here last year following 4 consecutive missed cuts. I’ll take him this year, where he is routinely shooting in the 60’s.

David Hearn – FeelTheHearn! As stated above, accuracy is the name of the game, and Hearn is ranked deceptively high coming in ranked 26 in driving accuracy, and 29th in our total proximity model. It helps that he’s not to shabby in the strokes-gained categories either. I like Hearn as a nice GPP play.

2016 AT&T Byron Nelson

Matt Kuchar

Can Kuch close this week at TPC Four Seasons

Talk about a hangover easy. Regardless of the what tournament follows up The Players, it’s not going to be the most heralded of the bunch. TPC Four Seasons favors those long hitters, and those who can get their putter hot. Both Tom and myself are suffering a busy work week, and being quite ill, respectively, so this will be pretty short and sweet.

For starters, lets talk about weather. Irving, TX is supposed to get a lot of rain this weekend, especially Thursday. If there is one thing this affects, it’s the Thursday afternoon groups, and the Friday morning groups. Why? Because typically they end up playing back-to-back golf on Friday. I know they are elite athletes, but that type of excess play can put a strain on anyone, both mentally and physically.

ATT Byron Nelson weather

Watch out for weather this week in Irving, TX

What can you do with that? Well instead of our typical high-to-low likes of the week. I’m going to give you a list of players that are playing in the Thursday morning groups that I really like:

Matt Kuchar – Mr. cash game. Kuch has been consistently solid throughout 2016. I like him to make yet another cut this week, and to also contend.

AT&T Byron Nelson

Non-weighted AT&T Byron Nelson Key Stats

Charl Schwartzel – Projects 2nd in our unweighted model. Charl has been playing good golf as of late. There is a chance that he could be a bit rusty, not having played since The Masters, however that should be balanced out by the weather.

Sergio Garcia – I think Sergio makes for a nice contrarian play. I would expect him to have low ownership this week, but he still will contend.

Gary Woodland – Along with Kuch, a definite cash-game play. He rarely misses cuts, and on a bomber course like this, I would also look for him to push for a top-10.

Ryan Palmer – A Texas native playing in Texas. I think his ownership will be high, based on the fact that it seems like no one knows what to do this week, so we may as well through a Texas native in there right? I will say that be careful on this play as the only thing he really has going for him is driving distance.

Tim Wilkinson – Stay in the flames Timmy Wilks! My goodness has he been playing good golf. Not a bomber, but he is ranked first in scrambling and top-10 in strokes gained putting.

Birdie Buster

Our Birdie Buster ranking takes into account BoB%, Avg Birdies, and Bogey Avoidance

Lucas Glover – I’m projecting Glover to be the highest owned in his range. He checks out on all major stats, and has been putting some good tournaments together as of late. He also has the benefit of being surrounded by a bunch of fades. Don’t sleep on Glover, but don’t think you’re getting a steal either.

Jonas Blixt – Hello sleeper! Vegas has him much higher than others in his range, and that typically means something. Definite contrarian play, and again, he has the added benefit of playing Thursday morning.

Adam Hadwin – I’ll continue to tote Hadwin’s name until he burns me. He has been consistent as of late. He’s not a huge bomber off the tee, but he is a DraftKings scorer, as he tends to get his putter hot. I like Hadwin to continue his birdie barrage this week.

 

***As for the Thursday afternoon players, Dustin Johnson is the obvious course horse this week, and look out for players like Andrew Loupe, Sean O’Hair, Marc Leishman, and it also looks like Jordan Spieth is having fun again.